Advanced topics

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The principal novelty this book brings to probability theory is a sophisticated epistemology accommodating defeasible reasoning. It is this that makes the theory of nomic probability possible. Earlier theories lacked the conceptual framework of prima facie reasons and defeaters, and hence were unable to adequately formulate principles of probabilistic reasoning.

There once was a man who wrote a book. He was very careful in his reasoning, and was confident of each claim that he made. With some display of pride, he showed the book to a friend (who happened to be a probability theorist). He was dismayed when the friend observed that any book that long and that interesting was almost certain to contain at least one falsehood.

It was argued in Chapter 1 that various kinds of propensities make intuitive sense, but existing propensity theories do little to clarify their nature. We are now in a position to give precise definitions for several different kinds of propensities in terms of nomic probabilities.

The characteristics of these propensities can then be deduced from the theory of nomic probability. The technique.

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